Glossary

A projection of how the climate system would react to a given emission or concentration scenario for greenhouse gases, aerosols or radiative forcing scenarios, frequently made on the basis of climate model simulations. A distinction is made between climate projections and climate prediction in order to underscore the fact that climate projections depend on the emissions, concentrations and/or radiative forcing scenarios used, which are themselves based on assumptions regarding e.g. future societal and technological developments that may or may not become a reality and are therefore associated with considerable uncertainty.

Projections are not predictions (“this will happen”); rather, they are “if X, then Y” statements: “If ⁠scenario⁠ X arises, then Y could happen.” They form the basis for assessing the risks and opportunities in connection with future climate change, and for developing adaptation measures.